Cape Town 2010 Advance Paper

The Science of Global Climate Change. Facing the Issues. What are the Issues?

Author: John Houghton
Date: 25.09.2010
Category: Creation Care

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Editor’s Note: This Cape Town 2010 Advance Paper has been written by John Houghton as an overview of the topic to be discussed at the Multiplex session on “The Environmental Crisis, the Gospel and Christian Witness.” Responses to this paper through the Lausanne Global Conversation will be fed back to the author and others to help shape their final presentations at the Congress.

God and Science (1)

First let me write a few words about God and science. A few prominent scientists are telling us that God does not exist and science is the only story there is to tell. To argue like that, however, is to demonstrate a fundamental misunderstanding of what science is about. At the basis of all scientific work are the ‘laws’ of nature – for instance, the laws of gravity, thermodynamics and electromagnetism, and the puzzling concepts and mathematics of quantum mechanics. Where do these laws come from? Scientists don’t invent them; they are there to be discovered. With God as Creator, they are God’s laws and the science we do is God’s science.

The Earth is the Lord’s and everything in it (Psalm 24), and Jesus is the agent and redeemer of all creation (John 1:2; Colossians 1:16-20; Ephesians 1:16). As we, made in God’s image, explore the structure of the universe that God has made with all its fascination, wonder and potential, we are engaging in a God given activity. Many of the founders of modern science three or four hundred years ago were Christians pursuing science for the glory of God. I and many other scientists today are privileged to follow in their footsteps.

A special responsibility that God has given to humans, created in His image, is to look after and care for creation (Genesis 2:15). Today the impacts of unsustainable use of resources, rapidly increasing human population and the threat of climate change almost certainly add up to the largest and most urgent challenge the world has ever had to face – all of us are involved in the challenge, whether as scientists, policy makers, Christians or whoever we are.

The science and impacts of Climate Change(2)

Let me start with the basic science underlying climate change, called the greenhouse effect, known for two hundred years and not in dispute. It describes how greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane, by absorbing infra-red or thermal radiation emitted from the earth’s surface, act as blankets over the surface, keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be – hence providing our current climate to which ecosystems and we humans have adapted.

Over the last 200 years, the industrial revolution has developed through the availability of cheap power from the burning of fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas that has led to emissions of large amounts of carbon dioxide - one of the greenhouse gases. Its amount in the atmosphere is therefore increasing and will reach two or three times its pre-industrial level by the end of the 21st century if no action is taken to curb its growth. As the carbon dioxide ‘blanket’ becomes thicker, surface temperature averaged over the globe rises with a strong impact on climate.

We are all familiar with the great variability we experience in weather. Climate, which is weather averaged over long periods, also varies and, in addition to the effects of greenhouse gases, is influenced by many factors, for instance the occurrence of volcanoes or the small variations that occur in the output of energy from the sun.

However, although there are uncertainties about much of the detail, especially concerning regional change, the main messages uncovered by scientists(3) about the world’s climate over the next decades and centuries are clear and unequivocal. First, there is compelling evidence that the world is warming and the climate changing – largely because of humans burning coal, oil and gas. Second, because ocean water expands as it warms and because of increased melting of ice from glaciers and the polar ice caps, the sea level is rising at a rate of at least half a metre per century(4).

Third, increased global temperatures lead to more climate extremes. For instance, more intense heat waves of unprecedented intensity have already occurred, such as that in central Europe in 2003 (with the premature deaths of over 20,000 people) and in Russia this year 2010. Further, increased temperatures means more energy entering the atmosphere’s circulation(5), which in turn brings more frequent and intense floods, droughts and storms. This year 2010 has seen devastating floods in Pakistan (the worst disaster in UN history!), the worst floods in more than a decade in China and floods following a long drought in West Africa.

Because of the variability of climate it is rarely possible to argue that any one extreme event is caused directly by the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It is the risk of such events that increases. As they become more frequent, matching the rising trend expected from our scientific understanding, it becomes valid to link their increased frequency to humanly induced climate change.

Floods and droughts are the most damaging disasters that occur. On average, they cause more deaths, misery and economic loss than any other natural disasters. Their increased frequency and intensity is very bad news, especially in the world’s poorest countries. Regarding droughts, careful studies of the incidence of droughts show that, at the present time, about 2% of the world’s useable land area is under extreme drought. Twenty years ago it was around 1%. By 2050 as greenhouse gases increase, it is likely to be more like 10%(6)– an increase by a factor of around five from today. That is the most disturbing climate statistic I know!

Within a few decades, impacts of climate extremes and sea level rise could severely affect billions of people, disproportionately those in poor countries in the developing world – it is there that climate extremes will be most severe and where there is little capability to adapt to them. By the second half of this century, there could be hundreds of millions of environmental refugees(7) whose homes are no longer habitable either because of rising sea level, gross flooding or persistent drought. The impact on the world’s ecosystems will also be large. Many species are already threatened by the destruction of tropical forests; climate change is adding to this. Millions of species are likely to be lost in the coming decades.

Can we be sure of Climate Change?

I am frequently asked, ‘Just how sure are scientists about the reality of humanly induced climate change?’ A very good question, given increasingly confused messages in the media.

The scientific story I have presented is based largely on the very thorough work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)(8). I had the privilege of being chairman or co-chairman of the Panel’s scientific assessments from 1988 to 2002. The IPCC has produced four assessments – in 1990,1995, 2001 and 2007. The 2007 assessment comprised three volumes each of about 1000 pages including many thousands of references to the scientific literature. It confirms the main conclusions of previous reports, and in the light of six more years of climate observations and research is able to express them with greater certainty. Several thousand scientists were involved as contributors and reviewers in these assessments. Each report began with no preconceived agenda as to its conclusions. For each report, the IPCC’s summary conclusions went through tough scrutiny, sentence by sentence, at a meeting of government delegates to ensure their clarity, accuracy and balance. In addition to governments’ endorsement, the IPCC’s work has been endorsed by the Academies of Science of the world’s major countries. However, despite these endorsements, strong vested interests have spent many millions of dollars on spreading misinformation about the climate change issue, especially in the media, and have tried to discredit the work of the IPCC(9). First they tried to deny the existence of any humanly induced climate change. More recently they have largely accepted that such change might be occurring but argue that its impact will be too small to require much attention or action. The scientific evidence cannot support such arguments.

Action by governments

At the Copenhagen conference last December, nearly all the world’s countries agreed that the increase in global average temperature from pre-industrial times should not be allowed to rise above two degrees Centigrade. Even at that level of increase the damages are likely to be serious(10). Above that target level, the damages will be increasingly more devastating in many parts of the world.

To have a good chance of achieving the two degree maximum, global carbon dioxide emissions must come to a peak well before 2020 and reduce as rapidly as possible thereafter – to close to zero emissions by mid century. Further, scientists have recently realised that if carbon concentrations rise such that the two degree target is exceeded, inertia in the system is such that reversing the process, if possible at all, would likely take centuries.

But can the two-degree target be achieved and can the world’s nations afford the cost? Many assume the cost would be large and unaffordable in this time of recession. A thorough study of the cost to the world’s energy industry of meeting the two-degree target has been carried out by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s top energy body, in their volume, Energy Technology Perspectives published in June 2010. It concludes that, compared with ‘business-as-usual’ (i.e. no changes in energy provision to combat climate change) the additional investment needed, averaged over the next 40 years, would be about 1% of the world’s gross national product (GNP), an additional cost that would be more than balanced by savings in fuel cost over this period. They further point out that the changes made would bring co-benefits in terms of energy security and avoided pollution. You may well ask why, therefore, do many of the world’s governments seem hesitant to take the necessary action? A senior diplomat has commented, we know what to do but lack the will to do (11).

A moral and a Christian imperative

For developed countries, associated with necessary action lies a very strong moral imperative. In rich countries, for over 200 years the growth of wealth has largely come through cheap energy from the burning of fossil fuels. Its effect on the world’s climate had not been realized, nor that the damage falls disproportionately on the world’s poorest countries. Now we know. There is therefore an inescapable moral imperative for rich countries to avoid further damage by rapidly reducing their carbon emissions and to share their wealth and skills with developing countries to enable them to adapt to climate change and to build their economies sustainably.

For rich Christians this imperative comes over with particular potency. We live in times when we are raping the earth and exploiting the poor. The Bible, from its first chapters, through the prophets, the ministry of Jesus and to its last book, puts much emphasis on caring for the earth and caring for the poor. At the beginning of his ministry, Jesus announced at Nazareth his anointing ‘to preach good news to the poor’ (Luke 4:18). Chapter 12 of Luke’s gospel contains some particularly relevant teaching. In the parable of the rich fool, Jesus roundly condemns the sin of greed. A few verses later comes the injunction to ‘sell your possessions and give to the poor’ followed by a parable about stewardship that ends with the words ‘from everyone who has been given much, much will be demanded.’

Many Christian agencies are in the forefront of action addressing extreme poverty. But the need is enormous. The question therefore is often asked, ‘Should not the problem of climate change be given lower priority until more progress has been made with combating world poverty?’ However, action on climate change is even more urgent than most other problems. This is because changes in climate that we experience today largely result from the emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases that occurred ten, twenty or thirty years ago – all because the climate system especially the oceans take time to warm up. If we fail to act to reduce emissions now, the climate impacts a few decades from now will be much greater and the plight of the poor, especially those in the most vulnerable areas, will become very much worse. The report from an international meeting of Nobel Prize winners addressing climate change last year was entitled The Fierce Urgency of Now. World poverty and climate change need to be addressed together and with equal urgency.

The need to share

We in rich countries need to learn to share very much more (see for example, 2 Corinthians 8). At the individual or family level a lot of sharing often occurs. At the national level in many countries, through social and benefits programmes, sharing has been built into the fabric of society. But at the international level, sharing occurs much less. But what about the aid, you may ask, that flows through aid agencies and from governments from the rich world to poorer countries? That is of course good and is increasing. But add to that the effects of trade. If aid and trade are taken together, the net flow of wealth is overwhelmingly from poor countries to rich ones – a statistic that should make us all blush with shame. A welcome response to this inequity is the recent growth of the Fair Trade movement that needs much greater support. Loving our neighbour as ourselves – wherever our neighbour may be – demands that we show much more care for the world’s poor.

Interpreting this present time

At the end of the 12th chapter of Luke’s gospel to which I referred earlier, Jesus talks to his hearers about weather forecasting. He tells them how skilled they are at interpreting the face of the sky, but goes on to chide them for not being able to ‘interpret this present time’ – by which he implied that they failed to apply the message Jesus brought to their own lives and behaviour.

How do we as Christians today ‘interpret this present time’? We are aware of the obligation to care for the earth and care for the poor and also aware of the likely consequences of humanly induced climate change. How can we respond to this challenge of Jesus? First of all, for our personal response, I suggest the following.

Those of us in rich societies need to recognise the extent to which selfishness and greed dominate attitudes and lifestyles in our communities that are becoming increasingly unsustainable(12). Of this we need to repent.
The fundamental commandments to love God and to love our neighbours demand that we share the world’s resources much more fairly – in particular, by assisting aid agencies in poverty relief and by supporting Fair Trade.
Our responsibility to care for the earth and to love our neighbour is not only for our own generation but for future generations too. To mitigate future damage we all need to play our part by reducing our personal carbon footprint and to lobby governments, industry and business urgently to take the necessary action.

Through our shared commitment to Jesus Christ and his gospel, there is enormous potential for Christians worldwide to work in partnership on these issues. Taking on the God-given responsibilities for caring for creation and caring for the poor provides an unprecedented mission opportunity for Christians to demonstrate love for God, the world’s creator and redeemer, and love for our neighbours wherever they may be – so commending the gospel to those whom we serve and to those who look on. The task is extremely large and demanding, but we need not be overwhelmed by it because we are not just partnering with each other but with our Lord Himself (Ephesians 3:20-21 and John 15:5,14-16). Pastor Rick Warren’s PEACE plan at Saddleback Church, California is an example of such partnerships between the developed and the developing world. Let me suggest two possible areas for partnerships concerned with action on climate change.

Even if the mitigation goal in (3) above is achieved, the rate of climate change will substantially increase, bringing a large requirement for adaptation. In particular, those in parts of the world most disadvantaged by the impacts of climate change will require much development help in adapting to changed climates.
Over one billion people live in poor rural communities in the developing world. In the hope of a better life, an increasing number are moving to cities that are growing almost impossibly large. A great need is for rural communities to develop where they are – they all need clean water, sanitation, sustainable farming and sustainable energy. Providing these needs on the scale required is a great challenge but would, I believe, be well within the resources of the worldwide Christian community.

Some Christians point out that since God is in control, we should leave God to take care of the future and we should not be concerned. Where we have no knowledge or possibilities for action, we are bound to do that. But when human actions are causing the problem, obedience in our role as God’s stewards (Luke 12) requires that we take every possible action, knowing that God himself will be working with us (Eph 3:20-21).

A Climate Crisis 4000 years ago

Finally, let me refer to one of the best-known stories in the Old Testament that takes up 12 chapters of the book of Genesis. Around 4000 years ago, Pharaoh king of Egypt had a dream. Joseph with God’s help interpreted the dream in terms of a climate crisis. Seven years of plenty were to be followed by seven years of famine. Pharaoh believed the message from God and placed Joseph in charge of management of the grain storage over the years of plenty for use in the subsequent years of famine. Joseph’s brothers came to buy corn. Joseph made himself known to them and said, ‘Do not be angry with yourselves for selling me here, because it was to save lives that God sent me ahead of you’ (Genesis 45:5). God used Pharaoh and Joseph as his agents in ameliorating the famine that came from the climate crisis.

Today, we face a climate crisis of enormous magnitude and proportions, not local but global, not of seven years duration but lasting indefinitely. Information about it has come not through dreams but through science – a God-given activity. The world scientific community have described as honestly and accurately as possible the likely impacts of changing climate and indicated the actions to be taken. As with Egypt in Joseph’s time, the next seven years are likely to be crucial. May I urge the world Christian community to rise to the challenge.

See John Ray Initiative Briefing Paper, Big Science, Big God, available from http://www.jri.org.uk/, also John Houghton, The Search for God, Can Science Help?
See John Ray Initiative Briefing Paper, Global Warming, Climate Change and Sustainability, Challenge to Scientists, Policymakers and Christians, available from http://www.jri.org.uk/ also my textbook John Houghton Global Warming: the Complete Briefing, 4th edition, CUP 2009.
Based largely on the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/
The rate of ice melt in polar regions is very uncertain. Recent conservative studies suggest sea level rise of up to metre by 2100.
As the Earth warms, there is more evaporation from the ocean surface, more water-vapour in the atmosphere and more average rainfall. Increased water vapour condensing to form clouds releases increased latent heat (the largest single source of energy for the atmosphere’s circulation) leading to a more intense hydrological cycle with more likelihood of floods and droughts.
E.J.Burke et al, J Hydrometeorology, 7, pp 1113-1125.
See, e.g. Myers, N., Kent, J. 1995, Environmental Exodus: An Emergent Crisis in the Global Arena. Washington DC; Climate Institute.
See IPCC website http://www.ipcc.ch/
Merchants of Doubt by Naomi Oreskes and E. M. Conway, 2010, provides a well-researched and chilling description of how a few influential US scientists deliberately obscured the truth on major scientific issues from tobacco and cancer to global warming.
See Mark Lynas, Six Degrees that won Royal Society award for best popular science book of 2008.
Quote from Sir Crispin Tickell.
See e.g. John Stott, The Radical Disciple, IVP 2010, chapter 5; Lausanne Covenant, para 9; Ronald Sider, Rich Christians in an Age of Hunger; Dewi Hughes, God of the Poor.

Keywords: Climate, climate change, science, scientist, Creator, greenhouse, wealth, poverty, rich, poor, love, resources, steward, Joseph

Conversation Post Comment

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down padre_todd (0)
United States

Thank you for your insight on global warming. I agree with you that Christians should be helping lead the way in addressing this issue. I also believe that your three suggestions for personal response is a good place to start. However, how do we move beyond our own personal commitment to change? How do we as Christians engage in a larger conversation with other Christians about this issue? To be honest, the issue of global warming is a subject that I rarely hear discussed in Christian circles.
I am the pastor of a small congregation. If I were to ask the members of my church where their concern for climate change ranked in their daily lives, no doubt it would be at the bottom. Some would probably question if climate change was really even a problem. How do we effectively educate our churches on this issue of climate change?
Having been also trained as an agronomist, I understand how warming global tempatures can impact global food production. Yes, global warming will affect everyone. But it will especially affect the subsistence farmers of the world who live from crop to crop. The poor in the developing nations will suffer the greatest if climate change is not addressed. How do we communicate this truth to our congregations?
So, what do we as Christian leaders do? How do we convince our congregation that is is truly an important issue for our world and for our Christian witness? Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

06.10.2011

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down alearner (0)
United States

Thank you John for your boldness in writing this article. Christians of all people should be concerned for the health of our planet. Yet so many of them even deny global warming exsists. I have been to Glacier National Park and seen pictures of glaciers that no longer exsist. Why the denial, then? Is it because we don’t want to have to reduce our own consumption of fuels? Is it because we don’t want to have to invest the money in solar and wind development? Do we not care about future generations?

02.04.2011

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down PAHayes (0)
United States
@ alearner:
Alearner,

I believe the denial comes from an attempt to hide from our responsiblities. If we act as if there is no issue then we can justify continuing our current lifestyle--full of unnecessary consumption of God given resources.

14.04.2011

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down PAHayes (0)
United States

I was captivated by the statement, "we live in times when we are raping the earth and exploiting the poor." Such strong language is necessary and should convict our spirit. We never think about how our environmental decisions have global effects. It is important to recognize what I do in North Carolina reaches to the poorest countries in Africa and Asia. That thought should enlighten us all to take more responsibility for the earthly materials God has bestowed upon us.

07.04.2011

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down phil25 (0)
United States

I agree with Mr. Houghton’s premise that we must be obedient to God in our role as stewards of the earth, yet, I do not hold the line as he does that the world is faltering to global warming. The world has fallen into sin and the consequences including destruction to the earth are apparent. I am more concerned with the destruction of souls than the mercury on the thermometer. But, do not misconstrue these comments to be from a heartless one, as I am fully cognizant of my duty to be the best steward of all that enters my hands!

02.11.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down John_Houghton (0)
United Kingdom
@ phil25:
Thank you phil25 for your comment. But global warming with its negative consequences for the environment and for the poor is happening as a result of human sin especially the sin of greed and lack of responsible care for the Earth’s resources. Until recently we sinned in ignorance not realizing the damage we were causing. Now we know. You mention that the world has fallen into sin. That sin is our sin. For that we need to repent but repentance on its own is not enough. We also need to stop sinning. The core gospel message of salvation from sin needs to be applied in practical ways to all sins including that of failure to be good stewards - see Luke 12 v48.

Every blessing

John Houghton

02.11.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down Pashlik (3)
Russia
@ John_Houghton:
John, it is very interesting that you are so convicted about "global warming."

1) There are many scientists who argue against. (I am sure you are aware of them.)

2) You have no conclusive evidence that it exists. In fact there is plenty to suggest it doesn’t.

3) You can not claim to have an overarching understanding on climate science. To do so would be arrogance.

4) I would dare say I have a smaller "carbon footprint" than you do. I know I certainly have a lesser carbon footprint then Al "Mr Carbon Billionaire" Gore does. I find it bemusing that I get attacked by my friends for having an opinion against global warming (in Australia) when I have most often had a smaller carbon footprint than them. If I was such a polluter and I disagreed with it, that would be a different thing. Why is it that one of the world’s biggest proponents of global warming (Al Gore) has a massive mansion and is continually jetting about?

5) There are some sins that are obvious according to scripture and others that are conscience based. There are yet other "sins" that are not actually sins at all, but rather sins in the eyes of culture. Smoking has become such a sin in the west (but not drinking- only severe alcoholism combined with violence); and global warming has become the new sin in the west. The Anglican Church in Melbourne like to call "global warming" the "defining moral issue of our time." I find their statement offensive when issues of poverty (not climate related- sorry) and unreached peoples not hearing the gospel are much bigger moral issues. If there is anything such as moral relativity at all, then many are guilty of placing global warming far too high on their agenda.

You need to get some perspective on this issue.

02.11.2010

Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down russpierson (0)
United States

This is a formal review of Houghton’s excellent paper, written for a doctoral course at George Fox Evangelical Seminary, Portland, OR, USA.

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DMIN517 / Engaging Leadership Concepts / Jason Clark
Russ Pierson

Climate Change of Another Kind:
A Review of “The Science of Global Climate Change:
Facing the Issues by John Houghton
#dmingml #capetown2010

First let me write a few words about God and science….[1]

These “few words” are written by John Houghton—who knows his stuff. Houghton served as chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an agency commissioned by the United Nations to assess the scientific data relevant to climate change, from its inception in 1988 through 2002. In 2007, the agency won the Nobel Peace Prize for its work.

Wisely (though perhaps vainly), Houghton anticipates his critics. He begins with a brief section entitled “God and Science,” and he takes issue with scientists who refuse to recognize God as Creator as well as Christians who refuse to recognize their responsibility to creation.

The author’s next section quickly outlines, “The Science and Impacts of Climate Change.” Here he makes three points:

First, there is compelling evidence that the world is warming and the climate changing – largely because of humans burning coal, oil and gas. Second, because ocean water expands as it warms and because of increased melting of ice from glaciers and the polar ice caps, the sea level is rising at a rate of at least half a metre per century. Third, increased global temperatures lead to more climate extremes.[2]

In deference to his critics, Houghton softens the blow slightly by noting it is difficult to link any specific “extreme event” to a particular cause, though the overall trend suggests it is “valid to link their increased frequency to humanly induced climate change.”

Most importantly, Houghton connects climate change and social justice, noting that anticipated climate change will disproportionately affect the poorest countries in the developing world.

The next section, “Can We Be Sure of Climate Change?” offers a brief apologetic, outlining the findings of the IPCC and pushing back against its detractors, while the portion that follows, “Action by Governments,” references the much-publicized Copenhagen Conference late last year and notes the almost-global commitment to avoid a maximize increase in global average temperature greater than two degrees Centigrade.

From here, Houghton grows stronger, more strident as the rest of the paper focuses on action. He notes the climate crisis requires “A Moral and A Christian Imperative” to respond, suggesting particularly “The Need To Share.” So then, as we go about “Interpreting This Present Time,” the author suggests first, as a personal response:

1. Those of us in rich societies need to recognise the extent to which selfishness and greed dominate attitudes and lifestyles in our communities that are becoming increasingly unsustainable. Of this we need to repent.

2. The fundamental commandments to love God and to love our neighbours demand that we share the world’s resources much more fairly – in particular, by assisting aid agencies in poverty relief and by supporting Fair Trade.

3. Our responsibility to care for the earth and to love our neighbour is not only for our own generation but for future generations too. To mitigate future damage we all need to play our part by reducing our personal carbon footprint and to lobby governments, industry and business urgently to take the necessary action. [3]

There is likewise a corresponding need for Christians to band together in appropriate partnerships:

1. Even if the mitigation goal in (3) above is achieved, the rate of climate change will substantially increase, bringing a large requirement for adaptation. In particular, those in parts of the world most disadvantaged by the impacts of climate change will require much development help in adapting to changed climates.

2. Over one billion people live in poor rural communities in the developing world. In the hope of a better life, an increasing number are moving to cities that are growing almost impossibly large. A great need is for rural communities to develop where they are – they all need clean water, sanitation, sustainable farming and sustainable energy. Providing these needs on the scale required is a great challenge but would, I believe, be well within the resources of the worldwide Christian community. [4]

Finally, the author ends the paper with “A Climate Crisis 4000 Years Ago,” the account of the Egyptian famine where God used Joseph as an agent of salvation who took swift and radical action over a seven-year period to save the people of the region. So, too, in this current crisis, we have opportunity to partner with God:

As with Egypt in Joseph’s time, the next seven years are likely to be crucial. May I urge the world Christian community to rise to the challenge. [5]

Climate Change of Another Kind

Houghton’s paper is a nicely-written introduction to climate change for a very general evangelical audience. For anyone at all familiar with the present-day environmental movement, it is incredibly innocuous. He anticipates his critics and mitigates his message to attain a broader audience.

Unfortunately, that “broader audience’’—judging largely by the posted responses to his paper—are Western, conservative and—at best—unconvinced and even hostile. As an example, one American writes:

I just have a couple of comments regarding The Science of Global Climate Change [The Challenge of Environmental Stewardship]. I am surprised that this topic would be given legitimacy at such an important congress as the Lausanne Congress on World Evangelism Cape Town 2010 is.

There is no climate change crisis as a result of man! This is a fraud perpetuated by man for whatever reason. Examples are the recent floods in Pakistan. They had nothing to do with the pollution made by man, but the corruption of man, governments, ignorance, poor education on location of homes, improper techniques of agriculture, and water control.

The rich nations have nothing to do with poverty of many countries. Most issues of poverty have to do with the corruption of present governments.

I work with the poor in Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin American, and in every instance of poverty in these nations ignorance, greed, and corruption cause the poverty; not the climate change because of man’s pollutants. This idea is nonsense and scientifically erroneous!

To even mention the recent Copenhagen Climate Summit in a Christian paper is embarrassing.[6]

In the global context, from my perspective, it is instead rabid denial and comments like this that are most embarrassing. I would characterize most of the comments from readers outside the West (other than obviously Western transplants) as appreciative and thoughtful. Perhaps those outside the West, who have the most to lose and whose populations are most immediately impacted by climate change (see for example the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)), who can most appreciate this almost-timid salvo by John Houghton. Houghton may be whistling past the graveyard, but he will not go alone.

* * *

[1] John Houghton, "The Science of Global Climate Change. Facing the Issues. What Are the Issues?," in The Third Lausanne Congress on World Evangelization (Cape Town, South Africa2010). http://conversation.lausanne.org/en/conversations/detail/11013, accessed October 17, 2010.

[2] Ibid.

[3]Ibid.

[4]Ibid.

[5]Ibid.

[6] Comments are available for public review at http://conversation.lausanne.org/en/conversations/detail/11013.

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22.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down Pashlik (3)
Russia

Wouldn’t it be great if more western Christians got out of their ivory towers and went and lived with the real world instead of thinking that they have the answers to everything?

These days I can’t believe that even as a Christian in my home country of Australia I get completely shunned for disagreeing with global warming. There are countless arguments against it, that I couldn’t be bothered entering into the scientific side of things right now. I have argued these points back and forth many times.

It is worth taking a spiritual perspective on this issue. I completely agree with the comments about multiplying and filling the earth. This earth is completely capable of supporting much more life, we just have to not be greedy about it. This is even before considering that God has given us the whole universe to explore.

Chronicles 7:14 reads:

If my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then will I hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and will heal their land.

Have we not stopped to consider that repentance and righteousness will bring healing to the earth? Have we not stopped to consider that the earth is groaning because of sin?

ABC Media in Australia produced a wonderful documentary last year. Rainfall in Queensland created a once in thirty or so year event. Many rivers and river systems that are usually bone dry were filled. These river systems flowed to Lake Eyre in central South Australia. Life sprang up everywhere through out the outback of Australia. These areas are usually barren. These river systems covered 1/4 of Australia’s outback. Land that was normally barren and dry became green and lush, filled with animal and plant life.

The events in central Australia are just an example of how the entire interior of Australia could actually be a completely different place. This shows a great potential healing, just as in the Chronicles verse.

Who can restrain the Pleaides?

Who can fully understand global climate science?

22.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down John_Houghton (0)
United Kingdom

Thank you Elizabeth for your 2 comments.

You raise many points to which I would like to reply. Are you in CapeTown. If you are it would be good to talk. Youi can find me on Table C522. If you are not in Cape Town I will reply to you after I get home next week.

Every blessinig

John

20.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down Elizabeth (0)
United States

v 28 And God blessed them, and God said to them, “Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth and subdue it; and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the air and over every living thing that moves upon the earth.”

The biggest problem I have with the environmental movement in general, and Christians often don’t escape from it, is that people are treated as blots on the environment and it is taken for granted that there are already far too many of us in the world.

John lists, "rapidly increasing human population" taking for granted that that is one of the sources of the "evils" we face.

In the same chapters of Genesis where God commands creation care, he very clearly tells us to multiply and fill the earth. That command is not raised as prominent as the verse next to it, though it is equally inspired.

Some would say we have already done that and beyond, but anyone who has flown any distance knows that isn’t true, in seeing the vast realms of territory with no people at all.

You can put all 6.5 (or 7?) billion people in the world in just the land area of Texas, and give each 1000 sq ft. of land. Do the math.

Jesus said, "Are you not worth much more than a sparrow?" The implication is yes, by far.

Even the sparrows nest in God’s house, but people are eternal.

God says that children are a blessing, and he has never changed that. Some say that only applied to an agrarian society, but there is no Biblical hermeneutic that supports that.

Please don’t unthinkingly assume that population control is (one of) the ways to fix what is wrong. There is still plenty of space for everyone (and many, many more) if we manage ourselves well.

It doesn’t surprise me that many people who live in megacities think there are too many people around. Lift your eyes and look at the vast country areas around, and take a deep breath, and rethink.

I am in favor of stewardship of the earth, but I think it is a mistake to assume that means that we need to try to decrease the number of people on it, rather than obeying the Biblical mandate, of equal prominence with taking care of the earth, to multiply and fill it, with the result that we can properly take care of it, and glorify God in the doing.

19.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down RagamuffinRese (3)
United States

Let me be intellectually honest right up front and confess to being skeptical of some of the climate change claims. While the intent of this paper is a call to reflection, so much hysteria is perpetuated in the US media it is hard to set the spin apart from the simpler facts.

The example of Joseph’s situation as a climate crisis to consider in this context may not be an accurate one. Like so many other natural disasters in the Bible, God engineered situations which would require His intervention or the raising of a person like Joseph. I don’t think one can say AGW was the culprit of the famine in Egypt. The results of the curse are part of our lives and will be until God’s kingdom comes. And God may well be continuing His sovereign movements of the elements to ends we may not see yet.

I will continue to ponder this paper and pray for wisdom and understanding.

04.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down John_Houghton (0)
United Kingdom
@ RagamuffinRese:
Thank you RagamuffinRees

We do ont know what natural causes brought on the famine in Egypt in Joseph’s time. it is not likely to have been due to human activities and there is no suggestion of that in Genesis. in those days nearly 4000 years ago, God used Joseph as his agent to save lives in Egypt and the surrounding countries (Gen 45, 7). We also realise its larger significance in the history of God’s chosen people. In the same way today I believe God calls his people in his strength to be his agents (Eph 3, 20) for the multivarious purposes of his kingdom.

Every blessing

John Houghton

13.10.2010

Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down Elizabeth (0)
United States
@ RagamuffinRese:

Hi -- When you speak of simpler facts, here are a few you might want to consider. Have fun!

change, not stability, is the defining characteristic of the global climate, with naturally occurring events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis) much more likely to affect climate than anything humans do; and

computer simulations are not real-world data and cannot be relied on to produce reliable forecasts.

most of the warming in the past century occurred before 1940, before CO2 emissions could have been a major factor;

temperatures fell between 1940 and 1970 even as CO2 levels increased;

temperature readings from reporting stations outside the U.S. are poorly maintained and staffed and probably inaccurate; those in the U.S., which are probably more accurate, show little or no warming trend;

“full professors from MIT, Harvard, Columbia, Duke, Virginia, Colorado, UC Berkeley, and other prestigious schools ... the former president of the National Academy of Sciences ... will argue that global warming is at best unproven, and at worst pure fantasy";

temperature sensors on satellites report much less warming in the upper atmosphere (which the theory of global warming predicts should warm first) than is reported by temperature sensors on the ground;

data from weather balloons agree with the satellites;

“No one can say for sure if global warming will result in more clouds, or fewer clouds,” yet cloud cover plays a major role in global temperatures;

Antarctica “as a whole is getting colder, and the ice is getting thicker”);

The Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica has been melting for the past 6,000 years ; “Greenland might lose its ice pack in the next thousand years”;

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is “a huge group of bureaucrats and scientists under the thumb of bureaucrats,” and its 1995 report was revised “after the scientists themselves had gone home” ;

James Hansen’s predictions of global warming during a Congressional committee hearing in 1988, which launched the global warming scare, were wrong by 200 percent (.35 degrees Celsius over the next 10 years versus the actual increase of .11 degrees); in 1998, Hansen said long-term predictions of climate are impossible;

there has been no increase in extreme weather events (.e.g., floods, tornadoes, drought) over the past century or in the past 15 years; computer models used to forecast climate change do not predict more extreme weather;

temperature readings taken by terrestrial reporting stations are rising because they are increasingly surrounded by roads and buildings which hold heat, the “urban heat island” effect ; methods used to control for this effect fail to reduce temperatures enough to offset it;

changes in land use and urbanization may contribute more to changes in the average ground temperature than “global warming” caused by human emissions;

temperature data are suspect because they have been adjusted and manipulated by scientists who expect to find a warming trend ;

carbon dioxide has increased a mere 60 parts per million since 1957, a tiny change in the composition of the atmosphere;

increased levels of CO2 act a fertilizer, promoting plant growth and contributing to the shrinking of the Sahara desert;

the spread of malaria is unaffected by global warming;

sufficient data exist to measure changes in mass for only 79 of the 160,000 glaciers in the world;

the icecap on Kilimanjaro has been melting since the 1800s, long before human emissions could have influenced the global climate, and satellites do not detect a warming trend in the region; deforestation at the foot of the mountain is the likely explanation for the melting trend;

sea levels have been rising at the rate of 10 to 20 centimeters (four to eight inches) per hundred years for the past 6,000 years;

El Niños are global weather patterns unrelated to global warming and on balance tend to be beneficial by extending growing seasons and reducing the use of heating fuels;

the Kyoto Protocol would reduce temperatures by only 0.04 degrees Celsius in the year 2100;

a report by scientists published in Science concludes “there is no known technology capable of reducing [global] carbon emissions ... totally new and undiscovered technology is required”;

19.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down Phillip_Siew (1)
Malaysia

Warning about global warming and its fatal effects if nothing effective is done is just like the cry of Noah to his generation about the coming of the Deluge. How we response to it is crucial for our survival as a human race. Are we too late? Or it’s better late than never? Are we in the denial and therefore become inaction? Or, are we facingthe reality with courage and seek God’s wisdom and strength to do what we could, even in a little way. The ocean is made up of drops of water.

12.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down Elizabeth (0)
United States
@ Phillip_Siew:
Hi, Phillip -- You’ll notice that in many contexts the terminology has changed and what is being deplored is "climate change". This is in part because, despite the concerns for greenhouse gases, over the last 10 years the average temperatures measured all around the world have actually been going down.

So, "global warming" doesn’t describe what has been happening, even though the release of greenhouse gases has continued to accelerate.

So, the movement adopted the term "climate change."

However, there has always been climate change, and always will be. So now "human induced climate change" is the current term.

19.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down William_Lauesen (-1)
Bahrain

When I was younger, the scientists all talked about the coming ice age. It was sure, all the best scientists agreed. Funny how trendy science can be. The unfortunate thing is that scientists who are contrarian rather than following the crowd are shut out of publishing papers because they disagree with the prevailing views. (Anyone in the stock market knows that if you follow the crowd, you’re going to get clobbered.)

Ever notice how many articles talking about temperature change or raising sea levels always talk about the future rather than the past? How do they know their models are right? (They can’t predict the weather next week, but they can predict it next century?)

Ever notice how articles talking about the tremendous changes all use similar reference points? If they always talk about how temperature has increased over the last 100 years, ask about what has happened over the last 500 or 1500 or 5000 years! You will quickly notice a different curve, a different slope. (It’s like if you want to show a downward slope of stock prices, just pick the last high peak, rather than a trough further back, to compare against current values.) Wouldn’t it be nice to see some long-term graphs?

Have we heard from the economists on this? Articles talk about how even if we all did what the latest treaty that was pushed said, spending huge sums of money, it wouldn’t make a noticeable difference; but if we took a fraction of that amount of money, many major world problems facing the poor could be solved. Things should be kept in perspective. There isn’t just one problem in the world needing solving; and even among the climate change enthusiasts, there are many problems that they see that need solving.

The talk about the IPCC sounded impressive, forgetting for the moment that it isn’t an objective task force, but one with a clear mission to get us all on board; and the conclusions being negotiated by government diplomats is supposed to guarantee scientific objectivity? (Makes one think of elections in totalitarian countries – if the results are 60% or 70% let alone 80% or 90% for one side, it doesn’t sound like democracy, right? So we’re supposed to believe that the knowledgeable scientists are 100% behind this? No contrarian viewpoints, no contrarian articles or graphs, inside the IPCC? I wonder why!)

The interesting thing about earth isn’t that God created it to be perfect for life – the interesting thing is that it has remained so, through ice ages and times of warming (and a universal flood), through everything that could be thrown at it. The earth seems to have amazing resilience – an amazing ability to self-correct. (Makes one think of the “invisible hand” of the market – also known as God’s sovereignty.)

We should definitely be wise stewards of what God has given us; but I’m not convinced that the sky is falling. I am convinced that we should love our neighbor, share the Gospel with him, and help him to be able to take care of his needs (and help his country to make this easier rather than more difficult). The scientists and politicians are not going to bring God’s love to the world – only we can do that.

14.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down John_Houghton (0)
United Kingdom
@ William_Lauesen:
Thank you William for your comments

I will try to respond briefly

First, the ’coming ice age’ in the 1970s was largely an invention of the media. A few scientists speculated about it on the basis of very little evidence, but none of my climate science colleagues at that time agreed with it.

Weather and Climate are not the same thing. Detailed weather is rarely predictable beyond a week or two. Climate is averaged weather over periods of a number of decades and, although subject to substantial short term variability, is influenced by forcing factors such as changes in the sun’s energy or increases in greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Our scientific understanding of these factors has increased enormously over the last 20 years.

I agree there are many problems in the world that we should be addressing NOW. You rightly mention world poverty - but if we don’t also address climate change very soon, sea level rise and the effects of increased floods and droughts etc will make the plight of the poor so very much worse. The leading evangelical Christian aid agency in the UK, TearFund, recognizes already the large impacts of Climate Change especially on the world’s poorest and is actively campaigning for serious action. Further, as the International Energy Agency has shown the cost of action is affordable and in the end will actually produce large savings.

Much false information is propagated about the IPCC by those who know little if anything about its work. Please see a short article I have written on the IPCC on <www.jri.org.uk> explaining the nature of the IPCC debates of the evidence under the honest discipline of science which have led to its conclusions.

May I urge you to examine carefully and honestly the evidence for Climate Change and its impacts - as presented for instance on the TearFund web site which explains in strong terms that our love for God and for our neighbour both demand that Christians take their stewardship of God’s creation much more seriously - stewardship that includes concerted action on human induced climate change.

Every blessing

John Houghton

15.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down Natalie_Wassung (0)
South Africa

John, thank you for such a well-researched, clearly-written article.

For a few years now I have felt like the only Christian who cares about Creation, such has been the deafening silence from the Christian community on the issue of stewardship and sustainability.

I have even experienced resistance from those learned in the Bible, who profess to love Christ yet object to taking better care of a world which belongs to Him and is witness to his glory. Whether the world is made completely new, or whether it will be renewed, does not change the fact that we have a responsibility to care for it as laid out in Genesis 2:15. (In Matthew 26:11 Jesus says that the poor will always be with us - yet this in no way relieves us of the responsibility of caring for them. The logic is the same in the case of creation care!)

I am therefore grateful for your work and also for others like you who have persevered despite the obstacles you are sure to have faced. Please be encouraged and continue!

Thank you too for your chapter in "When Enough is Enough: A Christian Framework for Environmental Sustainability". Books such as this have really helped me think through the issues, and equipped me to answer others’ questions.

God bless

Natalie

P.S. To those who might be interested in reading further on this subject, "Christianity, Climate Change and Sustainable Living" by Nick Spencer and Robert White is also an excellent book.

14.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down ChrisKidd (0)
United Kingdom

John writes a very helpful article starting with:

A few prominent scientists are telling us that God does not exist and science is the only story there is to tell. To argue like that, however, is to demonstrate a fundamental misunderstanding of what science is about.

I’d agree strongly with his claim that:

Although there are uncertainties about much of the detail, especially concerning regional change, the main messages uncovered by scientists about the world’s climate over the next decades and centuries are clear and unequivocal. First, there is compelling evidence that the world is warming and the climate changing – largely because of humans burning coal, oil and gas. Second, because ocean water expands as it warms and because of increased melting of ice from glaciers and the polar ice caps, the sea level is rising at a rate of at least half a metre per century

It is clear that climate change is affecting our world, the bigger question is to what degree, but there are some scary statistics available:

Floods and droughts are the most damaging disasters that occur. On average, they cause more deaths, misery and economic loss than any other natural disasters. Their increased frequency and intensity is very bad news, especially in the world’s poorest countries. Regarding droughts, careful studies of the incidence of droughts show that, at the present time, about 2% of the world’s useable land area is under extreme drought. Twenty years ago it was around 1%. By 2050 as greenhouse gases increase, it is likely to be more like 10% – an increase by a factor of around five from today. That is the most disturbing climate statistic I know!

John goes on to highlight the disappointment of government response at conferences like Copenhagen, but I hear even less strategic response from the Church and Christians - many don’t seem to see it as a priority. Part of the problem is that our attitude to climate change has a delayed result, the results of our decisions now won’t be seen for at least another 20-30 years - but those results could be huge.

The challenge for a conference like Cape Town is will we really see a unified response and action to this, sadly I doubt that, and it may be as equally a missed opportunity as Copenhagen was for our governments.

14.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down Suhail (0)
Jordan

I did not go deep in climate change, so this article challenged me to start giving this issue a deeper thought as it is affecting the world created by God and presented to man for management. I am aware of the comments against the article and I understand the “conservative” thoughts about the issue. Without making a fuss of it, I think we should reconsider our stewardship matter here. If our relationship with God vis-à-vis our properties and the way we handle what He has given us will move us into right direction and action. I like the idea of taking care of the coming 7 years of our life. Let’s give it a try.

12.10.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down AntoniavanderMeer (0)
Brazil

Thank you for a very challenging and thoughtful prophetic message for all Christians today. We need to become aware, and to be involved and d what we can on a small local level, but also on the worldwide level, as there is already much suffering caused by floods and droughts. May God help us to be responsible stewards,

Tonica van der Meer - Brazil

28.09.2010

: Reply Flag 0 Thumbs Up Thumbs Down David_Benson (2)
Australia

Thanks John ... appreciate both your expertise and heart behind what you’ve written. I first heard you lecture on this topic at Regent College (Vancouver) in Christian Thought and Culture, around 2007. It certainly has been a blind spot for many Christians, myself included. Under the guise of "God’s in control--don’t worry" we’ve justified a slothful ethic not befitting of those whose call is to seek the shalom of the whole world.

Most of all, I appreciate your emphasis that technology and science alone will not address the problem--technology will likely be part of any major response to climate warming, but is part of the cause of this mess in the first place. More centrally, we need to address our own brokenness and over-consumption. We need to willingly set limits on our consumption rather than waiting for a barren world to demand a change.

This is clearly a gospel call--to leave former idolatries, repent of our sin, and align our life with the reign of Jesus as King of the whole world. I think I need to preach the gospel to myself again, that my own energy use might be a sign of this Kingdom.

27.09.2010